CH₄, H₂ and CO₂ Consultations: Future Outlook

Since April 2025, the two transmission system operators have therefore been conducting a forward-looking consultation on infrastructure needs for methane, hydrogen and CO₂. ​

This work aims to support reflection on the evolution of the energy system by exploring possible futures based on scenarios put forward by public authorities. As part of this process, NaTran and Teréga are consulting a broad range of stakeholders: network operators, industrial players, public bodies, professional associations and academic stakeholders. The findings complement various studies carried out in this field by other organisations, including ADEME, RTE and France Gaz.

On 2 July 2026, NaTran and Teréga presented this work at an event introduced by the DGEC, bringing together stakeholders from across the CH₄, H₂ and CO₂ value chains.

The event also marks the launch of a new consultation cycle dedicated to the 2050 horizon, giving stakeholders the opportunity to continue co-developing key assumptions for the development of CH₄, H₂ and CO₂ transmission infrastructure in France.

2035 scenarios confirmed and refined through stakeholder contributions.

As part of the “Future Outlook” consultation process conducted throughout 2025, the scenarios for each of the CH₄, H₂ and CO₂ molecules were challenged, enriched and consolidated through the many contributions received from stakeholders in the relevant markets

These contributions confirmed the robustness of the initial scenarios and made it possible to test additional sensitivities, thereby broadening the range of scenarios considered.

Presentation of the scenarios: 

• Influence of scenarios on the methane transmission network
• Forward-looking H₂ development plan
• Forward-looking development plans for CO₂ infrastructure

A gradual reduction in natural gas consumption and the ramp-up of biomethane production, with infrastructure resilience confirmed under these trends and the various contingencies considered.

CH4 consumption was assessed through several variants framing the scenarios developed by public authorities. The range of scenarios selected is intended to reflect different paces of decarbonisation policy implementation and to shed light on their impacts on the energy mix.

The various scenarios anticipate a decrease in CH₄ consumption of between 5% and 25% by 2035, depending on the scenario, with total fossil and renewable methane consumption ranging from 270 to 350 TWh GCV/year. This trend is accompanied by the development of France’s bioCH4 production sector, which could reach 108 TWh GCV in 2035 under the accelerated decarbonisation scenario.

Our simulations of the various contingencies at both French and European level show that French gas infrastructure will remain resilient across all the 2035 scenarios studied, as it has been in the past.

H₂ consumption scenarios were revised in line with participant feedback and now range from 0.7 to 1.1 Mt/year by 2035, consistent with PPE3.

In line with previous studies — including those conducted jointly with RTE, which demonstrated the value of hydrogen transmission networks — NaTran’s modelling highlights significant benefits, estimated at around €2 billion per year, linked to the development of a meshed and interconnected French network rather than a system based solely on isolated regional hubs.

Based on these results, NaTran and Teréga present a hydrogen master plan consolidated through the consultation process, together with a proposed variant in the event of delays in the sector’s development, which nevertheless confirms the relevance of nearly 4,000 km of infrastructure by 2035.

NaTran and Teréga are aligned with the national decarbonisation pathway by supporting the development of CO₂ transmission infrastructure to accompany the deployment of CCS and CCU value chains.

Various initiatives, including connection studies and calls for expressions of interest, are informing the sizing of the CO₂ master plan in the short and medium term, with infrastructure tailored to CO₂ outlet and valorisation needs. This infrastructure could reach nearly 1,800 km by around 2035–2037. 
 

The 2 July presentation also marks the launch of a second consultation cycle focused on scenarios for the 2050 horizon.

As with the first cycle, this work will explore a range of pathways, including varied assumptions regarding the energy mix, industrial dynamics, security of supply and technological innovation.

The objective is to provide a more comprehensive basis for informing future energy choices in a context marked by significant uncertainty.