Net Zero by 2050

The aim is to inform the collective decisions that need to be considered starting today, by taking into account changes in context, new environmental and societal challenges, and the expectations of society. Following the success of Transition(s) 2050 (published between 2021 and 2024), this new series of projects sets out to update and add to existing scenarios, incorporating new challenges. An initial publication is slated for the end of 2026. Unique in France for its multi-criteria and partnership-based approach, it aims to contribute to national ecological planning and continue initiatives designed to safeguard the environment.

Five years after the publication of Transition(s) 2050, a major foresight initiative that explored four distinct pathways to net zero, the situation has changed dramatically. Health, energy and geopolitical crises have changed the playing field. Meanwhile, climate change has picked up the pace and its effects are increasingly visible, requiring new solutions. At the same time, AI, the circular economy and the need to restore and protect biodiversity are all major considerations when it comes to thinking about the future.

To tackle these new developments, ADEME and its partners are launching a renewed effort to explore and prepare for the future, structured around five pathways: a “business-as-usual” scenario which is based on current trends, and four alternative ones, each one reflecting different decisions made by society to achieve net zero.

Compared with Transition(s) 2050, this new effort will bring significantly more in the way of accuracy and finesse. It will include detailed analyses covering a wider range of themes, focusing on water, biodiversity, the “just transition”, adaptation, lifestyles and digital technologies. What ADEME’s initiative does is do more than just view the future through the energy/carbon lens. This systemic approach makes it possible to explore interdependencies between food, water, biodiversity, climate, housing, transport, industry, energy, digital technologies, lifestyles, the economy and governance. It leverages both technical and ecological data and human and social sciences, providing an overview, reflecting possible transformations.

The aim of this effort is to contribute to thinking, foster awareness and identify keys for pursuing action designed to protect the environment. By referencing society, lifestyles, concrete decisions and their consequences, the narratives underpinning these scenarios enable everyone to project themselves into these various futures and debate them.

To enhance its research, ADEME will draw on the expertise of public partners or organisations engaged in public service missions:

• NaTran for gas
• Inria for digital and artificial intelligence issues
• FRB and OFB for biodiversity
• Cerema and Haut-Commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan for water resources

At the same time, RTE is conducting a wide-ranging study as part of its legal mandate into how the electricity system might change between now and 2050 (updating its Futurs énergétiques 2050 study). ADEME and RTE have undertaken to work together to align as closely as possible the various assumptions and pathways associated with their respective efforts. RTE will carry out all the analyses on power grid's equilibrium for both strategic planning frameworks.
Together, these bodies will provide additional insights which will make the strategic models more credible.

This partnership is fully aligned with the government's national strategy. Sophie Mourlon, Director-General for Energy and Climate at France’s Ministry for the Ecological Transition said: “On the energy-climate front, the DGEC has asked ADEME and RTE to work together on future joint scenarios for achieving net zero. These strategic analyses will contribute to the government's planning efforts (France's national low-carbon strategy and the multi-year energy programming). This collaboration is fully justified by the complementarity of RTE’s expertise in the electricity mix and ADEME’s expertise in other aspects of the ecological transition. NaTran, the natural gas transmission system operator, will provide its expertise in the future of gas networks.”

In November 2025, a more inclusive consultation process will be undertaken by ADEME to feed into these scenarios. This will involve NGOs, trade unions, associations, local authorities and companies, all engaged in testing and adding to these assumptions. In addition to providing technical expertise, the aim will be to clarify questions arising in the public debate and promote collective ownership of the challenges.

To make the process more robust and credible, particularly regarding the methodology used and coherence across scenarios, ADEME will be advised by a Scientific Council chaired by Sophie Jullian, President of CPE Lyon, as well as a Partners Committee organised into four stakeholder groups (companies, local authorities, civil society and the just transition).

Central to this process will be ADEME using its cutting-edge expertise in modelling and scenario planning. Building on tools developed and refined since Transition(s) 2050 (such as Prospera, 3ME, MatMat and other sector-specific models), the Agency is now in a better position to model complex future pathways and check how resilient the underlying assumptions are. These models make it possible to cross-reference many dimensions and investigate a wide range of possible future outcomes depending on different assumptions. They are compatible with the ones used to produce the regulatory planning documents (the multi-year energy programme and France's national low-carbon strategy). This rigorous technical approach ensures the scientific credibility of the scenarios and their operational value for informing public policy decisions and societal choices.

One major innovation in this exercise is that the foresight work is rooted in local regions. This work will include, on the one hand, analyses conducted at regional level, so that production and consumption can be assessed under the various scenarios, and on the other hand, a tailored application carried out in six contrasting regions (mountainous and coastal regions, as well as urban, industrial and tourist regions). The scenarios will be expressed as a series of narratives and visuals, so that the local implications of national choices and the adaptations required can be shown in a concrete and accessible way. This approach will show how the transition can unfold differently according to regional specificities, while fitting within the common goal of achieving net zero.

• October 2024: work commences, assumptions and models are consolidated.
• 2025-2026: modelling and assessment phase (18 months).
• End of 2026: an initial summary document is published.
• 2027: primary report is published, together with additional thematic and territorial information.